Everything We Know About the Azerbaijan Airlines Crash in Aktau So Far

 On December 25, an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) flight crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan. At least 38 people died in the plane crash. 

In an exclusive statement to Euronews on December 26, Azerbaijani government sources confirmed that the crash was likely caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile.

According to the Azerbaijani Caliber news agency, citing government sources, the preliminary investigation revealed that the AZAL aircraft en route from Baku to Grozny was targeted by a Russian ‘Pantsir-S’ air defense system as it approached the city of Grozny.

During the flight over Chechnya, Russian air defense systems were attempting to intercept an ongoing drone attack. Hamzat Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic’s Security Council, confirmed a drone attack on Grozny on the morning of December 25, adding that there were no casualties or damage.

Given the circumstances, Russia was obligated to close its airspace to civilian aircraft, but this measure was not taken. “Why a no-fly zone was not declared over Chechnya remains a significant question,” Caliber wrote.

As reported by the news agency, the Grozny airport denied permission for the plane to land. It was additionally refused landing clearance at the airports in Makhachkala  and Mineralnye Vody .

The disoriented crew of the aircraft, subjected to air defense fire and electronic warfare systems, was redirected to the Kazakh city of Aktau. Caliber suggests that this recommendation was made with the purpose of ensuring the plane would crash into the Caspian Sea, leaving no survivors or evidence. “However, we emphasize that this is only our assumption,” Caliber noted.

The authorities of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan have not officially commented on the theory that the plane was downed by Russian air defense.

Reuters reported, citing four sources in Azerbaijan familiar with the investigation, that the AZAL plane was shot down by a Russian air defense system.

The British aviation firm Osprey Flight Solutions warned its clients that the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was "likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system," the Associated Press reported.

Additionally, according to Caliber, the aircraft's communication systems were entirely disabled by Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems, rendering it effectively blind and causing it to vanish from radar while over Russian airspace.